In 15 years, people will stop driving cars, electric vehicles would destroy the global oil industry
California,May23:In 15 years, people will stop driving cars, says an expert whose predictions have come true earlier.
Tony Seba, a serial Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and an instructor in Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford’s Continuing Studies Program, says that by by 2030, 95% of people won’t own private cars which will wipe off the automobile industry.
He also predicts that in the same period.
As a futurist, Seba has quite a reputation. He predicted a boom in solar power when the prices used to be forbiddingly high, 10 times the prices today.
It sounds improbable but it will ring true if you can put the pieces together. In a short time, the buzz in the transport industry has advanced from electric vehicles to autonomous or self-driving vehicles. During the same time, transport industry was disrupted by innovative internet-driven solutions such as Uber and rideshare apps.
“By 2030, you probably won’t own a car, but you may get a free trip with your morning coffee. Transport-As-A-Service (TaaS) will use only electric vehicles and will upend two trillion dollar industries. It’s the death spiral for cars (and the oil industry). We are on the
We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. But there is nothing magical about it. This is driven by the economics,” Seba told website GAS2.
Seba says the change could be as sudden as from horse-driven carriages to cars in the beginning of the 20th century.
Indeed, the new technology-driven disruption is fast. In India, app-based taxis have redefined urban transport in a very short time.
Seba says the cost of TaaS would be driven down by several factors, including utilization rates that are 10 times higher; electric vehicle lifetimes exceeding 500,000 miles; and far lower maintenance, energy, finance and insurance costs.
The average American household will save $5,600 per year by giving up its gas powered car and traveling by autonomous, electric TaaS vehicles,” he says.
While demand for fewer cars will drive the conventional automobile industry to destruction. it will also hit the oil industry.
“Global oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, dropping to 70 million barrels per day by 2030. This will impact different companies and countries disproportionately —and in many cases, dramatically — depending on their exposure to high cost oil,” reports North American Energy News.
Since Seba enjoys credibility as a futurist, his grim projections of destruction of automobile and oil industries might cause big institutional investors to stay away from or divest in fossil-fuel-based industry.