Exit polls indicate Left Front`s win in Kerala, TN heads for photo finish

Exit polls for the four States and one Union territory for which elections concluded on Monday showed the DMK-Congress alliance heading to victory in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee set for a repeat victory in that State, a Left Front government in Kerala, and a historic win for the NDA in Assam.

The Congress looks set to form a government in the Union territory of Puducherry, the post-poll surveys indicated.

The voter turnout in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry was less than the last Assembly elections in 2011, according to the Election Commission.

Tamil Nadu recorded a turnout of 73.76 per cent as against 78.12 per cent in the last Assembly elections.

While 74 per cent voters turned up in Kerala compared to 75.12 per cent in the last elections, 84.11 per cent voter turnout was registered in Puducherry as against 86.62 per cent in the 2011 polls.

In the two Tamil Nadu constituencies of Thanjavur and Aravakurichi, where the Election Commission deferred the polls to May 23, the Income-Tax Department initiated investigations to identify the candidates allegedly involved in distributing money.

In an unprecedented action, enforcement agencies seized over Rs. 100 crore in Tamil Nadu, of which Rs.48 crore was released after verification of sources.

One poll backs AIADMK

On curation of exit polls of at least four polling agencies for various TV channels, The Hindu found some variations, including the Times Now-C Voter survey that broke from the general trend in Tamil Nadu to hand over victory to incumbent CM Jayalalithaa.

Two other polls, one by Hindi news channel News Nation and another by Axis-My Nation for the channel India Today, showed the DMK-Congress forming the government. The News Nation polls gave the DMK-Congress alliance 114-118 seats in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Assembly, while the India Today-Axis My India poll gave the DMK-Congress 124-140 seats, and the AIADMK 89-101.

In Kerala, most polls predicted a win for the Left Democratic Front over the incumbent, the Congress-led United Democratic Front.

The NewsX-Today’s Chanakya poll gave the LDF 75 seats (with a nine seat variable), India Today-Axis My India gave it 88-101 and the Times Now-C Voter poll 78 in the 140-seat Assembly.

The big news for the ruling BJP at the Centre is that all exit polls showed the party and its allies trouncing the 15-year-old Congress-led Tarun Gogoi government in Assam.

Tamil Nadu projections: 234 total seats

Parties Chanakya India Today-Axis C-voter
AIADMK 90 +/- 9 89-101 139
DMK+ 140 +/- 11 124-140 78
Others 4 +/- 2 4-8 17

West Bengal projections: 294 total seats

Parties Chanakya India Today-Axis C-voter
AITC 210 +/- 14 233-253 167
Left+Cong 70 +/- 9 38-51 120
BJP+ 14 +/- 5 1-5 4

Kerala projections: 140 total seats

Parties Chanakya India Today-Axis C-voter
LDF 75 +/- 9 88-101 74-82
UDF 57 +/- 9 38-48 54-62
BJP+ 8 +/-4 0-3 0-4

Assam projections: 126 total seats

Parties Chanakya India Today-Axis C-voter
Congress 27 +/- 7 26-33 41
BJP+ 90 +/- 9 79-93 57
AIDUF 9 +/- 3 6-10 18