Gujarat elections: Congress likely to win elections, giving tough competition for BJP
Gujarat, October 24: The political tempers are increasing in Gujarat while the state Assembly polls scheduled for December this year. One one side, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is facing anti-incumbency and finds itself on the backfoot while on the other side, Congress party finds itself oscillating between enthusiasm and euphoria.
The Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi visited Gujarat four times recently and was in Gandhinagar on Monday. Rahul Gandhi’s visits to Gujarat is receiving a good and positive response from the public. It was quite evident that Rahul Gandhi seems to have matured as a politician. he is focusing on the right topics such as paying obeisance at Dwarka and Chotila, dwelling on unemployment amongst the youth, rising suicides amongst farmers, Issue of Jay Shah’s business.
Congress was further supported by the apathetic response to BJP’s poll forays in the public domain. So the main question is whether people have the confidence to vote in Congress or is it caused by rising anger against the ruling BJP in the state? The people in India unwillingly admire strong political leaders even those who become a law unto themselves.
Narendra Modi may stack criticisms on the late prime minister of the county Indira Gandhi but there is a lot more than striking similarity on many counts between the two leaders and their style of governance.
Narendra Modi’s persistent return to power in Gujarat proves that he had the pulse of the people. He was the party and he was the government in Gujarat. All the problems that followed the Narendra Modi’s departure to Delhi whether it is the Patidar agitation, OBC battle or the Dalit agitation everything is rooted in the post- Modi leadership.
There is not even a whit of doubt that the mishandling and the internal disputes of the Gujarat BJP leaders have seen the rise of the youth triumvirate of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mevani.
Even though the Congress is happy with the campaign in Gujarat, but still no one knows the problems the ruling party is facing in Gujarat better than Prime Minister Modi. At a public meeting in Vadodara on Sunday, Rahul Gandhi pointed out to a local BJP leader that there were more outsiders than locals.
The implications were obvious and he has chosen to project himself, seeking to send out a message to the electorate to vote to keep him in mind. That is exactly what Rahul Gandhi said in his address on Sunday that having governments from the same party at the Centre and in the state can do wonders for Gujarat.
The Congress party considers that the 2015 local self-government elections held in the backdrop of the Patidar stir were the turning point. But still, the main fact is that though the Congress swept the countryside, the urban support base, though marginally eroded, remained largely intact. While the BJP won the municipal corporations of Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Rajkot, Surat, Jamnagar and Bhavnagar.
At this crucial point, there are several reasons to believe that though rural and even semi-urban areas are against the BJP, the urbanites though unhappy have not keeled over.
Previously in 2012, a 9 percent vote difference that is 47.9 percent to the BJP and 38.9 percent to the Congress separated the two opponents. The BJP is expected to rule the urban seats, a swing towards the Congress in the rural areas can bring the current opposition at par, or even give it a marginal edge.
But in the final reckoning, 40 or 45 seats that can swing either way will hold the key to who rules in Gandhinagar. For Narendra Modi, the stakes are extremely high, and he will throw everything at his command to win Gujarat at any cost. A loss in Gujarat will make his journey to winning the 2019 general elections difficult.